His New Zealand almanac covers 64 towns. “He paints more than half of the time between the start of January and the end of March as earthquake risk,” says Mr Winter (see Mr Winter’s graph on the right – red equals earthquake). To put things into perspective: The Kaikoura quake released 2600 times as much energy as every nuclear weapon ever detonated. Luckily, the scientific community has also not been quiet on the matter. New Zealand will drop down into alert level 2 at midnight, freeing up restrictions on what you can do and where you can go from tomorrow. Provided the input are correct, the output is damning – there is no correlation. But not all – there was no mention of the September 4 quake until September 8, when he said there would be another “coming in six months”. Headlines that preceded the predicted December 1990 earthquake As one commenter on … The problem came when their predictions provoked fear, Hyde said. Mr Ring has a Twitter account where he posts some of his predictions. Honeychurch said the strength of any ability to predict future events was repeatability. Kevin Reed’s thoughts on the power of one second! While Gray has become a popular character among those who favour alternative theories, he doesn't have any qualifications in the field of seismology, or related scientific fields. “Certainty as to a particular event or outcome just cannot be achieved. Ristau said in his opinion there was "no credibility" in linking moon or lunar phases to earthquakes. “We are too impressed by occasional ‘hits’ and tend to forget the many ‘misses’ which outweigh them.” The Alpine Fault runs almost the entire length of the South Island. Gray first stumbled into the world of earthquake predictions via his interest in geo-engineering and weather modification. He then predicted another big quake would strike on March 20. In order to predict an earthquake, the person needed to give the date, the location (more specific than South Pacific), and a magnitude, he said. Moon Man Ken Ring, who has predicted a large earthquake in Christchurch next Sunday, is refusing to comment on a "non-event" gathering planned in the city. In the year after the M7.8 Kaikōura earthquake there were over 20,000 aftershocks. Science writer and former NZ Skeptics chair Vicki Hyde said Ring's background was quite common for someone who claimed to be able to predict future events based on trends or patterns they believe others have missed. This message was followed by the prediction about the earthquake: In 3 to 4.. the earthquake is coming.. soon.. its big. That’s 230 out of 365 days that fall on some day that he would argue influences earthquake activity… Should we evacuate an area every time the moon is on its closest approach, is full or new, is moving rapidly, is at its maximum declination or is crossing the equator?” ACC Minister Nick Smith has a PhD in geotechnical engineering and a background in landslides and earthquake engineering. Ken Ring - Long Range Forecaster. These predictions would not be released to the public, to avoid scaremongering. … On October 21, Frankie MacDonald of Nova Scotia, Canada, uploaded a video to YouTube called 'Massive Earthquake to Hit New Zealand Anytime Soon'. The exact magnitude, epicenter, and depth of the quake might be revised within the next few hours or minutes as seismologists review data and refine their calculations, or as other agencies issue their report. People who claim to be able to predict earthquakes are not unique to New Zealand. Ring has backed out of the limelight in recent times and did not respond to requests for an interview. nzherald.co.nz Wednesday, 18 November 2020 Ken Ring’s weather forecast for Ireland for 2020 - Advertisement - This year may see higher rainfall totals than normal, according to Kiwi long-range weather forecaster, Ken Ring. Dr Smith told the National Business Review that Mr Ring’s predictions are “mumbo-jumbo nonsense”. There had been examples of very small quakes being caused by fracking in the United States but the government had no means of creating a significant quake. He said he was just trying to prepare people for the earthquake he believed would strike. Ring, who predicted the deadly Christchurch earthquake and Ireland’s arctic winter in 2010, also forecast the country’s record-breaking July heat wave with uncanny accuracy back in January. With his dubious track record though, one could hope he singles out popular doomsday date December 21, 2012 for his next ‘prediction’. Mr Winter points out that the earthquake Mr Ring predicted was at least five times stronger (7+ in magnitude, as opposed to 6.3), and that taking into account Mr Ring’s own prediction covered 10 days (February 15-25), giving his other predictions the same leeway ends with more days Christchurch residents need to be earthquake-ready than not. Ken "Moon man" Ring is well known in New Zealand, with his wide-brimmed hat and moon-related earthquake predictions. Dr John Beaven, crustal dynamics geophysicist at GNS Science says: “A simple analysis… of aftershock occurrence and the phase and distance of the moon shows that there is no obvious correlation between these parameters and the occurrence of large aftershocks.” A scroll through his Spiritual Awareness social media page is almost like a session of staring up at the clouds. That’s 230 out of 365 days that fall on some day that he would argue influences earthquake activity. It said: "On 14th November and a couple of days either side of that date, watch for a major earthquake, and quite possible in South pacific area.". Even the world's top seismologists didn't entirely understand the physics of earthquakes - something that was necessary to predict quakes. Thursday, 03 December 2020. Ken Ring is a writer from Auckland, New Zealand, who asserts that he can use lunar cycles to predict weather and earthquakes. The facts on 7-11-17: Reported by Washington Post –“WELLINGTON, New Zealand — A strong earthquake struck Tuesday in the ocean south of New Zealand’s main islands, but there were no reports of serious damage or injuries and there was no threat of a tsunami. Dr Mark Quigley, senior lecturer in active tectonics and geomorphology at Canterbury University, says Mr Ring’s March 20 warning is “opportunistic and meaningless self-promotion during a time of national crisis”. He went on to say he had "strong evidence" to suggest the Kaikoura earthquake was "deliberately caused" and there was a plan to create another devastating earthquake using "electromagnetic frequencies" off the East Coast and Cook Strait. According to Geonet, the strongest shake Christchurch had that day measured 3.8 – less than one they had just yesterday – 4.0 – which Mr Ring didn’t predict. "Occasionally people will get lucky with a single prediction, but if someone can reliably and accurately predict future events then there's a chance they're onto something," he said. Gray caused another stir by predicting a shake would hit on or about December 13. "There's actually no way humans could set off earthquakes like that," Ristau said. The earthquake hit early morning on Tuesday 8 December 2020 at 1.52 am local time at a moderately shallow depth of 45.1 km. Over late December, and throughout January, Queensland suffered some of the worst flooding in its history, resulting in 35 deaths (Toowoomba, pictured right, was hit hard). He says Mr Ring is the “very embodiment of… cargo cult science – someone who does some of the things scientists do, but fails in the most defining characteristic by not honestly testing his theories against data”. Ken Ring: Can he actually predict earthquakes? The very next one he made was that Canterbury would suffer another quake on October 1. Ken Ring's Almanac failed to predict either the July or August 2011 extreme polar blasts that hit NZ. US-based Dutchsinse - real name Michael Yuri Janitch - says he has created a formula to predict the location and magnitude of earthquakes. 3 News. Ring has been a well-known fixture in New Zealand for some time now, and also flew to fame off the back of disaster. Gray during one of his seminars. Pictures of blue sky and what Gray and his followers refer to as chemtrails are peppered throughout his Facebook feed. Thousands of people fled the city in fear. "Moon man" Ken Ring has been claiming he can predict earthquakes for years but he recently took a step out of the limelight and isn't doing any media interviews. Weak frontal systems will bring cloud and patchy light rain at times. “There’s no added risk of a quake on March 20 or any other day, and I think people do not realise the disharmony and the discomfort that is being given to a lot of people in the Christchurch regions by [predictions],” he said yesterday. On December 1, Gray submitted an Official Information Act request to the Ministry of Defence: "I would like to know if you have attempted to investigate warfare or terrorism being conducted on New Zealand by means of geo-engineering (creating earthquakes) or weather modification?". He’s further pinpointed April 18 and the year 2020 as future earthquake dates. He claims the New Zealand Government is not only controlling our weather (using chemtrails and chembombs) but also creating earthquakes using a microwave transmission installation called HAARP (High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program). READ MORE: * Earthquake: there's no evidence the moon causes quakes * Why quakes weren't caused by seismic blasting or 'unzipping' faultline. It’s not often such extravagant claims are made in the mainstream, let alone get the following Mr Ring has corralled in recent weeks. Starting at the top, Sir Peter Gluckman, chief science adviser to the Prime Minister has rubbished Mr Ring’s claims. Mr Winter weakens Mr Ring’s theory further with a graph showing the total strength of quakes recorded each day between September 4 and February 22, matched with the moon’s monthly phases. The strongest quake to hit that day measured 6 – a decent shake under normal circumstances, but weak compared to aftershocks recorded on Monday and Wednesday. Hyde said these men's theories should not be discounted at face value - maybe someone will get it right one day. However, experts say Gray's November 14 prediction wasn't really a prediction. GeoNet's Ristau said it was impossible for man to create a quake like that experienced on November 14. Read Vine's Prediction Here: Psychic Prediction about Earthquakes and Extreme Weather. More ominously, the report is that Russian scientists have confirmed the independent analysis of New Zealand mathematician and long-term weather trends forecaster Ken Ring, who predicted the deadly earthquake in Christchurch (N. Zealand), and this week issued a new warning that the new earthquake should strike around 20 March. Some parts of New Zealand are more likely to experience severe earthquakes than others. According to NZPA, a group of geologists, alongside earthquake engineers, skeptics, Dr Smith and host of TV3’s The Nation,Sean Plunket, will be having lunch on the Port Hills(pictured right) to quell “unfounded fears”. "The level of evidence he seems to require in order to accept an idea is very low.". In fact, it was Galileo that developed much of what we now call the ‘scientific method’. Instead he posted on Facebook as to why he would not be interviewed by mainstream media. May will see the last of winter frosts and some fine weather but cool" - Ken Ring reveals his weather predictions for 2019. Before he was a self-appointed weather forecaster and earthquake predictor, Ring was a maths teacher and later became an educational magician, known as Mathman. So is there any validity at all to his moon-based methods, or is it just lunacy? Campbell said he believed Ring was causing unnecessary fear, when the people of Christchurch had been through enough. Earthquake: there's no evidence the moon causes quakes, Why quakes weren't caused by seismic blasting or 'unzipping' faultline, Lunchtime sightseeing trip in new helicopter ends with fatal crash, Transport Agency employee breaching learner licence kills motorcyclist, This could be the worst Parliament since MMP unless urgent changes are made, Pilot injured after helicopter crash in Hawke's Bay, Auckland mum appalled after school staff member put tape on her son's mouth, Quiz: Morning trivia challenge: December 16, 2020, Covid-19: Rest home volunteer dressed as Santa infects 75 residents in super-spreader event, Distressed investors handed over more than $13m to missing Australian woman Melissa Caddick, In a first, leading Republicans call Joe Biden US president-elect, Coastal residents’ fight for their homes comes to an end. Consider this: Ken Ring’s probability of getting a prediction correct based on perigee/apogee new moon/full moon for 2010 was 63 percent. He did not tweet or write anything on his website about the possibility of a quake in Japan beforehand, despite his claim they can be predicted far in advance. Mr Winter points out that the earthquake Mr Ring predicted was at least five times stronger (7+ in magnitude, as opposed to 6.3), and that taking into account Mr Ring’s own prediction covered 10 days (February 15-25), giving his other predictions the same leeway ends with more days Christchurch residents need to be earthquake-ready than not. The 2020 New Zealand Earthquake(pronounced "TWENTY-TWENTY", also known as theAlpine Fault Quake and the 2020 South Island Quake) is a magnitude 8.7 earthquake that will occur on the Alpine Fault in New Zealand's South Island at 11:31 (local) on Thursday, June 18th, 2020. Exactly the same format of what the books used to comprise. On November 6, 2016, Nigel Antony Gray posted a "heads up" about a major earthquake on his Facebook page. He acknowledges some research has shown small correlations between tides and “smaller, shallower continental earthquakes and ‘solid earth tides’,” but that, “typical earthquake-induced stress changes are about 100 to 1000 times greater than those induced by the tides”. When the November 14 quake struck Kaikoura, Gray shot to notoriety. CREDIT: SUPPLIED. Moon man Ken Ring has been forced into hiding after receiving death threats. Dear Roger I have not stopped from posting my predictions. "As a Painting Trade Contractor I have spent several years checking the weather reports, almost daily, on a need-to-know basis," Gray wrote in an online post. "If you make enough predictions, eventually you're going to get lucky," he said. Ken "Moon man" Ring is well known in New Zealand, with his wide-brimmed hat and moon-related earthquake predictions. Ireland is on the eastern edge of this antic… At that point, Gray was a little-heard-of painter and decorator from Takapau in Hawke's Bay. I had a visual of a bird with overgrown feet/legs and a large beak. The world's top seismologists are yet to figure out how to predict earthquakes but a couple of Kiwi amateurs reckon they've cracked the code. "Unfortunately Gray believes in so many different ideas that are not only far fetched but at times also contradict each other, it's hard to work out how the dots connect.". end quote. "There are repercussions for shouting 'fire' in a crowded cinema.". 25/08/2020 2021 NZ Weather Almanac Comprises 346 pages of rain maps, frost and snow, max+min temps, summaries, tables. Infact ,October 2020 ,prediction is already tgereon my blog However, there are... Japan Earthquake.8.9 and tsunami-11th March 2011 . He says his career as a painter makes him qualified to comment on weather, earthquakes and geo-engineering (we'll get to this soon). Includes snow diaries, significant events, fishing calendar, gardening guide, earthquake diary, all instantly downloadable. At the time, Gray told media his intention wasn't to scaremonger. The colours on this map indicate the likely severity of shaking in different areas – in technical terms, the ground motion which has a 10% chance of occurring within 50 years. In mid December, Ken Ring tweeted that Queensland, Australia, would have a “mostly dry” January. “Even if the moon is sometimes the straw that breaks the camels back at a particular fault, you couldn’t use the moon to predict an earthquake unless you already new a fault was about to go,” says Mr Winter, “i.e the moon could only predict earthquakes when you could already predict an earthquake.” According to GNS Science’s online earthquake record, that hour was one of five that day there were no quakes at all. He’s become a household name in New Zealand. Gray went from about 600 followers on his Weather Modification Facebook page before the quake, to more than 6000. NZ Skeptics chairman Mark Honeychurch said Gray appeared to have been interested in conspiracy theories for several years now. Ken Ring – genius ahead of his time or a complete fraud? While Gray may be the newest kid on the block, he's not the first Kiwi to claim he can predict earthquakes. The 55-year-old claimed the supermoon made a large earthquake a possibility. On February 27, Mr Ring said a “jolt” was “possible” in Christchurch between 3pm and 4pm. Gary's posted pictures of himself online, and on his consultancy website, with a bookcase full of scientology materials, worth thousands of dollars. What therefore may happen, can only be described in terms of risks and probability.” In fact, Christchurch has had aftershocks measuring at least 3.5 almost every single day since September 4, despite Mr Ring saying in October that they would end “probably around the end of November”. Let’s start with the establishment – in particular, the Government. 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